Almost every person I know who has been like "welp everyone is going to get covid eventually" has gotten covid. Not [all] of the people I know who are going hard have avoided getting covid. But enough folks have avoided getting it this whole time, including myself, that I know that masking and social distancing works. One of the only times I made an exception, in December 2021 I hung out with 3 friends. All of them got covid. Scared me straight and I've been more or less locked down since.