it's really funny to me how unintuitive probability is. countless buckshot roulette players have counted the remaining shells, found that most of them were blanks, and shot themselves, but if you run the numbers you find that (barring any weird item effects) it's almost always correct to shoot the dealer anyway
there's a video on youtube by Delightful Kissboy that goes into the math if you're curious but as i recall the conclusion is basically "only shoot yourself if you are actually 100% certain it's a blank, or in one of these extremely weird edge cases" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3gMPMHXVK0
of all the kinds of math, probability feels like the one we're least equipped for intuitively
because there are less intuitive subjects, but they don't seem intuitive like probability does. you know you don't know, but with probability you're just wrong
